Global Markets Brace as Gulf Tensions Threaten Oil Supply, Experts Warn

Alanbatnews -

Escalating tensions in the Gulf region could trigger a global energy crisis and send financial markets into a tailspin, an economist has warned.

A prolonged disruption to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, would have severe economic repercussions worldwide, according to Jordanian economist Amer al-Shobaki.

Al-Shobaki cautioned that the region and the world face a global energy crisis, the repercussions of which will be the most severe in decades.

The Gulf region's economies, along with the global economy, would be the first to suffer, given the Arabian Gulf's importance as a major energy source, with about 21 million barrels of oil passing through it daily, in addition to about a quarter of global liquefied gas exports, al-Shobaki said.

He warned that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices soaring above $100 a barrel, potentially triggering a widespread global inflationary wave.

Al-Shobaki predicted sharp declines in global stock markets, particularly in the United States, coupled with rising gold and oil prices.

The potential crisis poses a significant challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has predicated his political platform on economic growth, low inflation, and affordable gasoline prices, al-Shobaki noted.

Gulf states, along with Iraq and Jordan, would be among the hardest hit regionally, he added.

The economist noted that the insurance industry is already feeling the strain, with Lloyd's of London, which insures approximately 90% of the world's ships, classifying the Arabian Gulf, Iranian coasts, and parts of the Gulf of Oman as high-risk areas. This designation has led to a surge in insurance costs by roughly 50% in just two days, with further increases anticipated if the crisis persists.

Al-Shobaki criticized the United States and Western nations for misjudging the speed of the conflict's evolution, expecting a swift collapse in Iran that never materialized, leaving them vulnerable to a series of economic shocks.

Higher fuel prices would create substantial domestic pressure on the U.S. administration, directly impacting American consumers, he added.

Al-Shobaki sees Trump's statements about opening negotiations with Iranian leaders as part of a political and military maneuver, stressing that the world cannot bear a longer paralysis in the most important energy corridors.

He concluded that the options are now limited to a swift military resolution or urgent political negotiation, warning that the continuation of the war would return the global economy to a spiral of inflation and deep financial crises in which there are no winners.